The Current State of Affairs
Migration simply means movement of people from one environment to another. It is essentially a situation where people leave their place of habitation to go and live in another place. While ‘japa’ on the other hand, is a word from the Yoruba extraction which connotes to ‘escape’. The expression has recently become colloquial in the Nigerian parlance. Gaining independence since 1960, Nigeria has continued to grapple with social, political and economic challenges that have had adverse effects on the economy. One of such challenges is mass migration of citizens. This trend has increasingly gained momentum especially within these past few years.
However, it will be fair to reckon the fact that, the myriads of challenges that are strangulating the country are equally responsible for this exodus the country is experiencing. These challenges pan across health, security, education, leadership sectors, etc. For instance, according to a 2021 report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 33.3% of Nigerians were unemployed. In the same vein, in November 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that 133 million (63%) Nigerians were ‘multidimensionally poor’. Similarly, the education sector is total decrepit. The facilities are battered and outdated. Strike actions have become inextricable part of the academic curriculum. The health sector is equally in shambles as it is experiencing a stark lack of funding and quality healthcare facilities.
More so, production and output of food and other agricultural products have greatly downsized because many farmers have since been sacked from their farmlands by herders. On the other hand, insecurity has become the order of the day. It has claimed the best of the country so much so that no day goes by without insecurity headlines dominating the national dailies, ranging from kidnapping, banditry, terrorism, police brutality, unknown gun men to ritual killings. These issues have continued to provoke word rhetoric in the public domain for a protracted period.
Therefore, many Nigerians have been coerced by the foregoing factors to migrate, or more appropriately, escape in search for greener pastures, that is to say, they leave in search for employment and life opportunities. Some leave for educational purposes, some leave for security reasons, some leave for health factors, while others leave for exposure.
The Effects on the Economy
The effects of mass migration on the economy are as much as the number of people leaving the country. For each skilled individual that leaves there is a far-reaching consequence on the economy. Exodus is not something that people should celebrate especially if there is no war or natural disaster. The people migrating are mostly those with tremendous potentials, otherwise known as ‘brain drain’. They are people who have great abilities and have acquired competitive skills, including Doctors, Lawyers, Researchers, Academics, Journalists, among others. Therefore, one of the primary effects of mass migration on the economy is the loss of skilled and unskilled labour. This has had negative effects on the quality of services provided to citizens and has led to increased costs.
The migration of skilled workers such as engineers, doctors and teachers has led to a shortage of professionals in key sectors of the economy, such as healthcare and education. For instance, according to an October 2022 report by the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), Nigeria has one doctor to 10,000 patients. This is in sharp contrast to the one doctor to 600 patients recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The country has lost her best productive brains to Europe, America and even Asia. For example, the first successful effort of the World Health Organization at developing Covid19 vaccine came from the U.S particularly from a Nigerian by name Dr. Onyema Ogbuagu who developed the Pfizer vaccine. Other profound examples include; Jelani Bello, a Nigerian who designs Chevrolet cars in the U.S and Dr. Osatohanmwen Osemwengie, a Nigerian who develops drones for the U.S military. The migration of unskilled workers has also taken a toll on the economic growth and development leading to shortage of labour in certain sectors such as agriculture and construction.
Another effect of mass migration on the economy is loss of revenue. The migration of citizens especially those who are of working age have led to decrease in tax revenue and decrease in consumer spending. This has affected the ability of the government to provide essential services to the citizens and has been contributing to budget deficit. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria has lost about 10 billion dollars annually due to brain drain (mass migration) since 2010. Similarly, data from the World Bank show that Nigeria’s GDP growth has been negatively affected by the migration of skilled workers. In 2019, GDP growth was only 2.27% against the projected growth rate of 2.8%.
The Youth Factor
Further impacts of the ‘japa’ syndrome include vulnerability to trafficking and exploitation of the Nigerian youths, especially if they lack proper information, documentation, or support. A 2022 population snapshot by the Mixed Migration Centre reveals that Italy hosts at least 120,000 Nigerians on its territory, the second largest group of Nigerians in Europe (after the UK), and is the most important destination for Nigerian victims of trafficking. In 2017, a total of 18,000 Nigerian migrants were recorded to have arrived into Europe via the Mediterranean, 5,400 of which were women (UNHCR, 2018). Also, within 2014 and 2016, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) recorded an almost 600% increase in the number of potential sex trafficking victims arriving in Italy via the Mediterranean.
One salient issue of concern is the question of which population will stand in the gap or who are the future drivers of the country if all the youths keep escaping? The departure of the young, dynamic and educated population would leave a void in various sectors of the nation, from the workforce to leadership roles, including the military, construction, education, health, agriculture as well as the political sector.
Nigeria’s economy would suffer, as the youth are vital to innovation and productivity. The lack of a skilled labour force would continue to hamper development and hinder technological progress. Additionally, the political landscape might be destabilized as experienced leaders will also leave, potentially creating a power vacuum. The social fabric of the nation could weaken, leading to issues like an aging population and potential social unrest.
Another pertinent thing to note is that the remittances from migrants have made many parents and relatives back home perpetually reliant and dependent on children abroad. Remittances undeniably provide critical support to many families. These financial contributions are instrumental in covering essential expenses such as education, healthcare, and daily necessities. They also provide a financial lifeline during emergencies or unexpected hardships, serving as a safety net. However, remittance may discourage recipients from seeking local employment or investing in local businesses, thereby discouraging economic development at the local level. Additionally, the consistent inflow of foreign currency from remittances can impact exchange rates and inflation. Furthermore, if the economic stability of a family is solely tied to remittances, disruptions in the source of income abroad can have severe consequences on the livelihoods of those in Nigeria.
The Way Forward
A famous dictum by Albert Einstein goes, “you cannot solve a problem with the same mindset that created it”. In order to address the ‘japa’ syndrome and its attendant impacts on Nigeria’s economy, the government has to up the ante and make a paradigm shift from the existing lackadaisical style of governing.
The roles of the government in mitigating the effects of mass migration on the economy lies chiefly in creating an enabling atmosphere for the citizens to thrive. One of such roles is to provide incentives for skilled workers to stay in the country. This can include offering tax breaks or other financial incentives for professionals in key sectors of the economy. Also, the government should enhance the business space and private sector by reducing bureaucracy in order to encourage investment and ease in business activities.
Furthermore, policies and programs should be initiated with the goal to retain unskilled labour. This may include training and work placement programs to help citizens find employment in their field of expertise. Besides, concerted efforts should be made towards strengthening the purchasing power of the Naira so as to improve the living wage. Overall, the government should demonstrate pragmatism in education, security, health, employment, infrastructure, sports, entertainment, industrialization and manufacturing sectors, so as to attract professionals and investors who will inevitably culminate in a prosperous Nigeria for all citizens.
Conclusion
It’s important to note that while migration can offer opportunities for personal and economic development, it can also be challenging and risky, especially for vulnerable young people addressing the root causes of mass migration, such as unemployment, insecurity, and lack of opportunities, is crucial for creating an environment where youths can thrive in Nigeria without feeling compelled to migrate in large numbers.
Samson Tavershima Shabu
Research/Program Officer
Building Blocks for Peace Foundation
Email: research@bbforpeace.org