From the records of incidents that took place during the month of October, with data gathered from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) and other news agencies (national and international), it was observed that there was an increase in the deaths in Nigeria caused by conflictual activities compared to the past month.
One common observation during the reporting month is the increase in the level at which farmers, women and girls were abducted. In so many instances, especially in the North-Central where women were kidnapped to assist the abductees carry farm products to their hostages.
Also, in several universities, girls were abducted in their hostels in Northern Nigeria1. The rate of kidnapping is strategically getting high in the north central region even more than the rate in the northwest.
Among other clashes in the Northeastern part of Nigeria, there tends to be a higher level of armed clashes majorly between security personnel and Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) recording the highest deaths in the country.
Furthermore, the northwest is faced with the issues of attacks by state Militias most especially in Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto and Zamfara. The Southern region is faced with attacks by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the southeast, attacks by Unidentified Armed Group and Tiv Ethnic Militia in south-south and cult Militia in the Southwest.
Table 1: Number of Deaths across all the Regions in Nigeria
| S/N | Regions | Frequency | Percentage |
| 1 | South east | 35 | 5.7% |
| 2 | North east | 244 | 39.8% |
| 3 | Northcentral | 48 | 7.8% |
| 4 | South-south | 43 | 7% |
| 5 | Northwest | 228 | 37% |
| 6 | Southwest | 20 | 3% |
| Total | 612 | 100 |
The table above shows the number of deaths across the regions in Nigeria. According to data from ACLED, it was reported that not less than 35 deaths were recorded in the southeast, not less than 244 deaths in the northeast, 48 deaths in the northcentral, 43 deaths in the south-south, 228 deaths in the northwest and 20 deaths in the southwest.
Table 2: Incidences and deaths in Nigeria
| Regions | ||||||
| Incidences | South east | North east | North central | South south | North west | South west |
| Armed clash | 9 | 90 | 3 | 29 | 57 | 16 |
| Attacks | 26 | 40 | 45 | 14 | 71 | 4 |
| Air/drone (explosion) | 114 | 100 |
The table above represents the number of deaths caused by different incidents across each region in Nigeria. Due to clashes between different militias and military personnel, there were records of not less than 9 deaths in the southeast region, 90 deaths in the northeast, 3 deaths in the north central, 29 deaths in the south-south, 57 deaths in the northwest and 16 deaths in the southwest.
As a result of attacks by different actors, the south east recorded not less than 26 deaths, not less than 40 deaths in the north east, 45 deaths in the north central, 14 deaths in the south-south, 71 deaths in the northwest and not less than 4 deaths in the south west caused by attacks.
The existence of air/drone attacks has been the reason for the death of many in the north east and northwest where the incident is common. According to ACLED, not less than 114 deaths were recorded in the northeast and about 100 deaths in the northwest region.
Note: This is to clarify that there were other incidents recorded but there were no deaths recorded from such incidents such as: abduction, looting/property destruction, protest/riots and arrests.
The Various Forms of Violent Reported in October
Armed Clash
One of the basic rises of deaths in the northeast and northwest is as a result of the rise in clashes between armed groups in these regions. Whereas in southern Nigeria, the south-south experienced a higher level of armed clash during the reporting month. A clash between Yache (Yala, Cross River) following a lingering dispute over payment of royalties to Yache locals by Tiv settlers resulted in the killings of 20 persons, most of whom were women and children2. These clashes exist even between the military personnel and other state militias. Which indicates that, there is an observable level of fight against insecurity by the security agencies. The fight against these terrorists has also led to the death of many military personnel.
Attacks
In Nigeria, every state and region in general encounters one form of attack or the other. These attacks sometimes lead to death of civilians and even victims of kidnapping. From observation, the northwest recorded the highest number of deaths caused by attacks by state communal militias. In the northeast which is faced with the issue of attacks by ISWAP, Boko Haram/ISWAP militants attacked residents at Ngurokayya village, shot and killed 17 young men, wounded 4 others as punishment for tax evasion3. Also, in the southeast, an unidentified armed group attacked and killed twenty people in Oguaniocha or Oguaniocho (Ogbaru, Anambra).
Kidnapping/ Banditry
Kidnapping is one of the most occurring events that spread across all regions in Nigeria. However, it tends to be higher in the northern part of the country. Almost every day in every month civilians are kidnapped by unidentified armed groups and state militias in different locations, either in their residence, schools, workplace, on the road and even in the farm and other likely places. Even if the record of this month’s kidnapped victims is fewer than that of last month, there is need for government’s intervention in providing a level of security across all spheres. Farmers are now scared every day of being kidnapped whenever they think of going to their farms as there is an alarming increase in the abduction of farmers in the northern part of Nigeria. On a spot, a Kaduna militia abducted over 30 farmers while they were working on a farm in Chikuri (Chikun, Kaduna)4.
Table 3: Number of persons kidnapped across all the Regions in Nigeria
| S/N | Regions | Frequency | Percentage |
| 1 | South east | 9 | 2.7% |
| 2 | North east | 73 | 22.5% |
| 3 | Northcentral | 143 | 43.5% |
| 4 | South-south | 17 | 5.2% |
| 5 | Northwest | 84 | 25.6% |
| 6 | Southwest | 2 | 0.5 |
| Total | 328 | 100 |
The table above represents the number of persons abducted in all the regions across Nigeria. In the southeast, not less than 6 persons were abducted, 73 persons in the northeast, 143 in the northcentral, 17 in the south-south, 84 in the northwest and about 2 persons in the southwest region. From observation, northcentral had the highest number of abducted victims in Nigeria.
Looting/Property Destruction
There were no records of deaths in any of the regions as a result of looting, rather so many properties were destroyed by IPOB, ISWAP, Boko haram and other state militias across all the regions. In northeast, Borno and Yobe, properties were destroyed by ISWAP and Boko Haram. ISWAP claimed to have attacked a Christian community in Ngohi, coded to Askia (Askira Uba, Borno). They set fire to a church forcing the residents to flee the village5 and also raided the Ngirbuwa community, coded to Gujba (Gujba, Yobe). They destroyed some INGO medical facilities. In the northcentral, an armed group suspected to be affiliated with the APC vandalized the campaign office of the SDP in Ofu LGA, Kogi.6 In the northwest, it was reported that militias raided communities and went away with their valuables in Danko, Kebbi and Birnin Gwari in Kaduna.
Nigerian troops discovered and destroyed 7 dugout pits, 9 boats, 25 storage tanks, 39 cooking ovens, 3 pumping machines and 14 illegal refining sites across different locations in the Niger Delta. Location coded to Port Harcourt (Port Harcourt, Rivers).7 Also in the southwest were Lagos State Government Task Force demolished shanties and makeshift.8
Protests/Riots
Despite the forthcoming off-cycle elections that will be held on the 11th of November, 2023, there was no observable destruction of properties across the regions. This indicates that the forthcoming election will be peaceful. There was just a case of youth who protested in the streets of Rivers, Port Harcourt against the claims of a planned impeachment of the state Governor9.
Air/Drone Strikes
This is basically common in the northeastern part of Nigeria and few cases in the northwest. Air/drone strikes are usually adopted by the Nigerian Air Force in specific areas where there is the existence of state militias who tend to cause havoc in such communities. In the northeast where ISWAP is at its peak intending to destroy the lives and properties of community members. However, in an attempt to destroy the camps and members of such groups like the Boko haram, ISWAP and state militia groups, it is likely to destroy the products and lives of the civilians.
In the northeast, not less than 114 persons were killed as a result of the airstrikes carried out by Military Forces. Whereas in the northwest in just one incident, 100 people were killed in Maru, Zamfara10.
Conclusion
It was reported that there was an increase in deaths during the reporting month, October. These deaths spread across different incidents such as armed clashes, attacks and airstrikes. According to the ACLED sheet, there were a total of 314 incidents, with records of about 618 deaths. Kidnapping is also one basic issue that is faced by all the regions in the country. This month recorded a few numbers of kidnapped victims compared to last month, however, there is need for the security agencies to be alert to protect the lives of women, farmers and students as they are now seen as targets by abductees.
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